It is known that more than two-thirds of Syria's territory was in the hands of opposition forces in 2016, and at that time, the capital Damascus was besieged. The Syrian opposition factions had reached the outskirts of Damascus and controlled areas like the Qaboun neighborhood in the suburbs of Damascus, with the Presidential Palace within the range of opposition forces' fire. Despite this significant progress at the time, the revolutionaries were unable to overthrow the regime due to the support it received from its allies. At the same time, the regime did not take any action to spare Syrian blood, nor did it agree to start any steps toward a political solution according to Security Council resolutions, particularly resolutions 2254 and 2118.

The reason the regime did not take any steps toward a political solution at that time was that its army was stronger than it is now, and its economic situation was much better than it is today. Its allies were also very strong, especially Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Moreover, the international community was opposed to the military solution, as were the opposition military factions of multiple marja’s (religious references).

However, the situation now is very different. The regime's army is exhausted and collapses as soon as its officers and troops hear of the advance of opposition forces toward them. Meanwhile, the regime's economic situation has completely collapsed, and obtaining a loaf of bread or a gas cylinder has become a dream. There is intense frustration among its popular base, and the regime’s allies are weaker than ever. The Russian Federation is occupied with the war in Ukraine and no longer has the capacity to support the Syrian regime as before. Russia now needs all its weapons and equipment, and for Moscow, Ukraine is more urgent than Syria. Hezbollah is broken-backed and paralyzed after losing most of its leaders and military and human capabilities. Iran has also lost many of its leaders and its military presence in Syria. Therefore, the regime is now alone in the battle.

Meanwhile, the opposition has formed a single operations room and manages the military operation with high professionalism, and there is no longer a multiplicity of military references as there was before. Moreover, the recently liberated areas are being managed well until now. On the other hand, the international community has become frustrated with the possibility of the regime changing its behavior or accepting a political solution according to international resolutions.

Based on these facts, despite the West’s reservations about Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, there have been no Western statements against the group until now. In fact, the US, and the West in general, have held the regime responsible for what has been happening in Syria for the past 13 years. Therefore, from today, it can be considered that the Syrian regime is in the past, and the discussions behind the scenes in the international community are now focused on the fate of Assad and how to manage the transitional phase.

The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the position of The New Region