ERBIL, Kurdistan Region of Iraq - As the date for Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States approaches, attention is drawn to the new US administration's plans for the Middle East, specifically Iraq. Trump’s previous statements and firm stance toward Iran and its allies place the Iraqi “armed factions” on alert, especially amid the security and economic tensions currently gripping Iraq, according to analysts.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani recently conducted several visits to regional countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and most recently to Iran on Wednesday. During these visits, he discussed security issues, bilateral relations, and ways to enhance regional security and stability with the leaders of these countries.

Iraqi academic Essam al-Fayli said that “the United States views any threat to its national security or interests in the region with seriousness, especially under the administration of Trump.”

“Washington differentiates between the Iraqi government's stance and the positions of some armed factions,” Fayli told The New Region, adding that “the official Iraqi stance enjoys international support, especially with the government's recent steps aimed at reducing the influence of armed factions and restructuring unregulated arms, which poses a threat to internal peace.”

There have been reports in recent weeks of international calls, mainly from the US, on Baghdad to disarm and dissolve armed groups not operating under the umbrella of Iraqi state forces, including the Iraqi government-linked and Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday told Sudani that “the PMF is a crucial component of power in Iraq, and more efforts should be made to preserve it and to strengthen it even further,” 

Fayli claimed that Khamenei’s statement “could signal that Iran is reassessing its relationship with Iraqi factions and may be moving toward focusing on the PMF as an official ideological force while reducing reliance on armed factions outside official frameworks.”

The analyst stated that the US is closely monitoring developments in Iraq, adding that “economic sanctions remain an effective tool in Washington’s hands to impact Iran and Syria, and may be increasingly used against Iraqi entities viewed by the US administration as part of Iranian influence.”

In 2008, Iraq and the United States signed the Strategic Framework Agreement, which included several provisions, among them regulating the presence of US forces in the country and clauses related to enhancing cooperation in economic, cultural, and political fields.

Behind the scenes of Sudani’s discussions in Tehran

Sudani held a phone call with US President-elect Donald Trump shortly after his reelection in November, during which Trump expressed his desire to work positively with Baghdad and meet with the Iraqi premier to enhance bilateral relations and “advance their shared priorities,” according to a statement from Sudani’s office.

According to a political source close to Sudani, his recent visit to Tehran carried strategic dimensions related to bilateral relations between Iraq and Iran, as well as sensitive regional and international issues.

“Sudani carried special messages from the United States to the Iranian leadership, addressing the issue of Iran’s support for armed factions in the region and the targeting of US bases in Iraq and Syria,” The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The New Region.

“The messages included clear warnings from the US administration about Iran’s continued support for these factions, as it poses a direct threat to American interests in the region and regional security as a whole,” they added.

The source stated that the new US administration seeks to rearrange its priorities in the Middle East, particularly reducing Iranian influence in Iraq.

“The American messages carried by Sudani to Tehran are part of diplomatic efforts to avoid military escalation. However, they also included indications that the US will not hesitate to take strict measures, including imposing additional sanctions on entities or individuals involved in destabilizing activities.”

Sudani’s discussions with the Iranian officials also focused significantly on the future of the PMF, according to the source, including the possibility of integrating the armed factions into Iraq’s official security apparatus.

Iraqi media outlets reported that the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, informed Sudani that “Iran has no reservations about any decision regarding the future of the armed factions in Iraq.”

Trump has previously described the decision to send American troops to the Middle East as “the single biggest mistake” in US history.

“The Middle East, and Iraq specifically, are not among the immediate priorities of Trump upon his return to the White House,” Canada-based analyst Duraid Nasser told The New Region, explaining that the US President-elect will be more focused on resolving the hostage crisis in Gaza, and only after that he might move to the Iranian issue and the situation in Syria.

“The two most important files for Trump, after settling the hostage issue, will be the Iranian file and the US presence in Syria,” he said, adding that “these files include matters like the relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF] and understandings with Turkey, issues that are expected to have significant impacts on regional balances, especially in Syria.”

The political researcher predicted that Washington would impose “severe sanctions” on Iran-linked armed factions, but posed the question whether these sanctions will be limited to the factions, or will they extend to the Iraqi government as well?

“These questions reflect the complexity of the situation, as sanctions on the government could leave Iraq exposed to the international community, especially since the US has so far represented Iraq’s international protection at the security, military, and economic levels,” he stated.

“Any change in the relationship between Iraq and the US would have a significant impact on the Iraqi economy,” he added, noting that “Iraq's ruling elites rely heavily on international support, particularly concerning economic and financial issues, meaning any US escalation would have wide-ranging effects.”

Duraid stated that he “strongly doubts” Trump would resort to military action against Iran or its proxies in Iraq, “unless Tehran changes its tactics in a way that forces Washington to make drastic decisions,” stressing that “Iran understands the danger of provoking the Trump administration and is likely to exercise restraint to avoid a military escalation that could have dire consequences.”

Iraq faces significant challenges in the coming phase, according to Duraid, with the possibility of “US escalation putting armed factions under immense pressure, alongside international focus on ensuring the Iraqi government’s compliance with international laws and restricting arms to state control.”

The US has approximately 2,400 military personnel deployed in Iraq. US forces were deployed to Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government in 2014 to fight the Islamic State (ISIS), which had then overrun large swathes of Iraqi territory in the north and west of the country.

The Iraqi government had previously signaled a commitment to end the US military presence by “no later than the end of September 2025.” However, recent developments in neighboring Syria and broader geopolitical dynamics have prompted a reassessment, according to Iraqi officials and media reports.

Rami al-Salihi contributed to this article