Donald J Trump is once again President of the United States. With this comes a change in foreign policy. While many will look to the Ukraine-Russia conflict and others to the Chinese threat to the Island of Taiwan, the Middle East will also become a region of speculation. Israel, Iran, and Turkey will play their roles, as each has a history with Trump. How will all this change and affect the Kurdish region? Will Trump continue his policies from the first administration, or has the region changed to a degree that a new policy will emerge?

To begin, we must look at what drove the last Trump administration and decide if that has changed. Both Trump and his Vice-President JD Vance have long held the view of not involving U.S. troops in foreign wars and ensuring the U.S. does not get involved in the so-called forever wars of the past. So, what will have changed if anything? Iran is still a major threat to the region and American allies such as Israel and the Kurds. Recent changes to the regional geopolitical landscape have reduced Iranian power and influence. Syria is one of the changes and has gone from a non-threatening entity to a potential center of rising Islamic terror. Turkey has pulled away from the West and gotten openly closer to both Russia and Iran. Can any of these changes result in a new vision from the Trump team?

The hopes for the Kurds rest in this being true.

The Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil is the strongest ally that America has in the region. The threats that come from the region are an immediate and direct threat to the United States and the West. If the United States is truly interested in stopping the forever wars that emanate from ISIS and other Iran-backed groups, then supporting the Kurds is the best place to start. In the last Trump administration, any type of support to Iran was cut off which resulted in greater Iranian mischief which persisted through the weak policies of the Biden Administration. The only group that has been able to withstand increased Iranian hegemony has been the Kurds. Kurdish ability to continue has been made more efficient with the weakening of Iran. Turkey has continued to press its anti-Kurdish policies that include support for anti-Kurdish forces in Syria. We also see a reemergence of ISIS around the globe. Going back in history only the Kurds were able to stand up against them.

Now we must also address a changed Trump. Trump has shown more discipline with a greater ability to ignore distractions. While those in his MAGA base are still strongly isolationist, those who have been named to be in his cabinet are better informed and understand the place the United States must be within the international community. The question then becomes how an American withdrawal will affect American politics in the next four years. If Trump does withdraw from Syria and the Kurds are slaughtered, this will reflect the same incompetence as Biden showed in Afghanistan.

For good or bad, Trump has become more politically astute than he was four years ago and will take a more pragmatic approach to the Kurds. Stability in Kurdistan will result in instability in other areas.