ERBIL, Kurdistan Region of Iraq - It was apparent from the start that the consensus among the Iraqi Shiite forces in the early months of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s government would not last long. As the months went on and the government was beset by compound crises, divisions began to emerge within the forces. As the 2025 elections approach, the fragile consensus continues to fade.

The Coordination Framework on Monday announced that it will be splitting into multiple lists for the upcoming elections, which will reunite after the vote to form the Coordination Framework bloc that includes all its components, according to an official statement. This has prompted questions about the future shape of the Shiite political landscape: What will it look like? And what form will the next conflict take?

Maliki’s coalition says ‘not concerned’ about Sudani

The most prominent Shiite element within the Framework, Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition, confirmed that it will indeed participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections through a separate list, while also stating that it will rejoin the Coordination Framework post-elections.

“We will run with an independent list,” coalition member Imran al-Karkoshi told The New Region, stressing that “after the elections, we will again join forces with all the Coordination Framework parties to form the largest bloc in parliament, as is currently the case.”

Karkoshi added, “The State of Law Coalition has no concerns about Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s rise or his alliances in the upcoming elections. We have a solid voter base and political allies from various parties. Ultimately, Sudani will also be part of the next Coordination Framework bloc. He will not be outside of it.”

Sudani’s alliance with governors and “businessmen”

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani is reportedly planning to enter the upcoming elections through an electoral alliance which will include his Furatain Movement and Falih al-Fayyadh, chairman of the Popular Mobilization Commission (PMC), who holds influence in both Sunni and Shiite regions, according to multiple sources who spoke to The New Region.

The sources agree that “Sudani has solid understandings and is negotiating with other factions, such as the Sanad bloc led by Labor Minister Ahmed al-Asadi and [Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada chief] Abu Alaa al-Wala’i,” although the sources suggest that Sudani would prefer for Asadi to run separately from Wala’i.

Moreover, Sudani has strong ties and mutual understandings with several governors, including Wasit Governor Mohammed Jameel al-Mayyahi and Karbala Governor Nassif al-Khattabi, who was a prominent leader in Maliki’s Islamic Dawa Party.

According to the sources, “Sudani has a good chance in Nineveh province, due to his closeness to the governor there, as well as Defense Minister Thabet al-Abbasi and his ally Falih al-Fayyadh, who wields significant influence in the province.”

Sudani, who is putting “pressure” on other Shiite forces, has succeeded in attracting a group of key figures from within the State of Law party, including Alia Nassif, Hanan al-Fatlawi, and Nassif al-Khattabi.

A source close to Sudani mentioned another dimension of his strength: “His alliance with influential Shiite businessmen, including Hassan Wakeel, Saad Wahib and others, gives him additional support.”

An official from Sudani’s Furatain Movement, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed the reports to The New Region, stating that “some members of the Coordination Framework will be part of Sudani’s alliance, led by Sanad Bloc head Ahmed al-Asadi,” and adding that “there are also ongoing discussions to include the leader of the Badr Organization Hadi al-Amiri but matters are still under negotiation and no final agreement has been reached.”

“Sudani aims to form a broad electoral coalition that includes all political parties and communities, not just the Shiite component,” said the official. “Therefore, he is actively reaching out to Sunni and Kurdish figures and factions to include them in his election alliance for the upcoming phase.”

Coordination framework forces “have not settled their choices”

Some parties within the Coordination Framework consider the decision to enter the upcoming parliamentary elections with multiple lists a tactical move.

MP Rafiq al-Salihi from the Sadiqoun bloc told The New Region that this is not a sign of division, as some claim, but rather “an electoral tactic.”

Salihi stated that “all these forces will regroup under the Coordination Framework umbrella after the elections, just like they did in previous parliamentary or provincial council elections.”

“The Coordination Framework has not finalized its electoral alliance decisions yet. Things are still fluid, but there is no internal conflict. Everyone is focused on strengthening the Coordination Framework, especially for the post-election phase, to ensure the largest community has the right to form the Iraqi government,” He added.

He concluded by saying that “Sadiqoun has no reservations about electoral or political alliances with any party, whether inside or outside the Framework. We also support the return of [Muqtada al-Sadr’s] National Shiite Movement and have no electoral interest in their continued boycott.”

Hakim’s movement speaks of “imminent” alliance announcements

The National Wisdom Movement (Tayyar al-Hikma), led by Ammar al-Hakim, confirmed its openness to all political parties in terms of upcoming electoral alliances.

Akram al-Khazali, a member of the movement, told The New Region that “the Wisdom Movement is open to all political forces, both within and outside the Coordination Framework, with no vetoes or reservations against any group.

“Discussions are ongoing with factions that share the movement’s vision and aspirations, which may lead to official alliances announced soon.”

Regarding the National Shiite Movement’s participation in elections and politics, Khazali emphasized its importance, saying: “It is very necessary, and we’ve always opposed their withdrawal. We are among the strongest advocates for their return. Their political and social presence is significant, and they must be part of those taking on responsibility in the next phase.”

Deep divisions and fierce competition

Khalid al-Ardawi, a political science professor, predicted that the conflict among Shiite factions would be the most intense in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

“The conflict among Shiite political forces has already begun, first seen in their decision to run under multiple electoral lists,” he told The New Region. “The current attacks on the prime minister also reflect the fierce competition between him and traditional forces.”

He explained that “divisions among the Coordination Framework’s Shiite parties are very deep, touching on both internal and external matters. These divisions will escalate the conflict as the election date nears. We expect this to be the most intense competition yet.”

Ardawi added that “Shiite political forces understand the importance of the elections. If any influential player fails to gain seats, they risk losing power and influence. Therefore, all parties will compete fiercely to win the most seats to maintain their leverage, which will be the main driver of electoral conflict and rivalry.”