ERBIL, Kurdistan Region of Iraq – The first direct negotiations between delegations of the warring Ukraine and Russia are set to meet in Istanbul on Friday, though many worry that the low-level nature of the Russian team suggests little progress will be made.

Speaking on Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, "I want to be frank... we don't have high expectations of what will happen tomorrow." 

US President Donald Trump reiterated such a sentiment aboard Air Force One, saying of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence from the talks, "I don't believe anything's going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together.”

Putin opted not to attend the talks despite a challenge from his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, to meet him face-to-face, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte noting that Moscow had instead chosen to send a “lower-level delegation” to Turkey.

The negotiations were initially chalked to be held on Thursday but were postponed by one day.

Prospects of any serious initiative that could be made by the peace talks were dampened as Kyiv and Moscow traded barbs in recent days, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accusing Russia of being “not serious” about ending the war and lamenting the “dummy” delegation sent by the Kremlin. A Russian foreign ministry spokesperson responded in turn by calling the leader a “clown” and a “loser.”

The Russian delegation is led by the hardline Vladimir Medinsky, who, despite previously having questioned Ukraine's right to exist, stated that Moscow seeks a "long-term peace" in a Telegram post on Thursday.

Zelensky met with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in Ankara on Thursday, later thanking him in a post on X for his “support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” adding that he “recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine.”

Russia is expected to push for recognition of sovereignty over the Ukrainian territories it has occupied in any peace accord, while Kyiv demands a complete ceasefire, with Zelensky having also repeatedly highlighted the salience of “security guarantees” in securing any lasting deal.