ERBIL, Kurdistan Region of Iraq – The recent release of Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Russian-Israeli national researcher who was kidnapped in Iraq by Kataib Hezbollah in March 2023, has raised questions over whether her freedom was secured through a secret deal, political guarantees, or broader international pressure.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced that Tsurkov had been released by Kataib Hezbollah after more than two years in captivity. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani confirmed her release moments later.

The announcement has triggered debate across political circles in Baghdad and Washington over whether the release involved prisoner exchanges, security guarantees, or political tradeoffs between the United States, Israel, Iraq, and armed factions.

Scenario 1: Prisoner exchange with Lebanese Hezbollah

Aqeel Abbas, a political and strategic researcher based in Washington, told The New Region that Tsurkov’s release was most likely the result of a prisoner exchange.

“I don’t believe it is linked to political gains such as strengthening Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s relations with the US administration. In fact, this would harm him and leave a bad impression,” Abbas said.

He argued that “handing over a hostage means a crime was committed, and as a state you are required to hold accountable those who carried out the crime. But the opposite is happening, trying to benefit from the crime, and I find that unlikely.”

Abbas added that the more likely scenario was that Israel freed a Lebanese Hezbollah prisoner captured during its recent war with the group. “The factions view themselves as one cross-border entity, and that is what happened. It has nothing to do with benefiting Sudani,” he said.

The researcher also described the situation as embarrassing for Iraq’s prime minister. “The US announced the deal, while he is the prime minister of the country where she was held and then handed over to the US Embassy. There was no mention of the Iraqi government or state. He now needs to issue a statement, as this is a matter of sovereignty, and the Iraqi state is in a very bad position.”

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency on Friday reported that Tsurkov, whom they term an “Israeli spy,” was exchanged for two “resistance” prisoners, with one of the prisoners being a Lebanese national who was “kidnapped by Israeli commandos in northern Lebanon last year.”

Scenario 2: Guarantees for Iraq

A’id al-Hilali, a politician close to the Iraqi prime minister, offered a different perspective. He told The New Region that the release of Tsurkov came in exchange for guarantees following attacks on factions by the United States or Israel.

“It is clear that any handover operation cannot be read outside the calculations of gain and loss for the factions, which still hold significant influence in the security and political equation. The price may be political, through guarantees not to target them or place them on US sanctions lists, or economic, by easing some of the pressures on Iraq regarding frozen funds and financial transfers,” Hilali said.

He added that the deal could also include security arrangements. “It could be part of understandings ensuring reduced attacks or sparing them direct strikes amid regional escalation. In other words, the price is not purely material; it is composite, combining survival, influence, and securing room for maneuver.”

Hilali said the case could serve as a political card for Sudani. “The handover of Tsurkov, whether through declared or undeclared coordination, would be a valuable card in Sudani’s hands, as he presents himself to the US administration as capable of managing a complex and sensitive case involving a Western national with an intelligence dimension.”

“This behavior could translate into broader understandings with Washington, whether in supporting Iraq’s economy, extending waivers for importing energy from Iran, or even reducing the pressure over the presence of US forces in Iraq.”

But he also warned of risks. “The government may be accused of yielding to US dictates at the expense of sovereignty. Some internal parties may see Sudani as having made a strategic concession undermining Iraqi decision-making. This delicate balance is what makes the file highly sensitive: a step like this could open new doors for Iraq internationally, but at the same time ignite sharp internal disputes if not managed with utmost caution and tact.”

Hilali concluded: “In the end, the question is not only: what was the price? But also: is Iraq prepared to bear the consequences of the deal? Here, Sudani’s role becomes crucial in proving he can leverage the event to strengthen the state, not weaken it, and to establish a balanced equation of interests between Washington and the factions, and between external demands and internal pressures.”

Scenario 3: A spy swap deal

Ali Fadlallah, a political and security researcher close to the armed factions, also described the release as a deal. Speaking to The New Region on Friday, he said the case should be viewed in the context of prisoner swaps.

“The handover of the Israeli spy by the Iraqi government to the US side came as part of a deal. To attribute it to the factions, despite no group within the entire Axis of Resistance having claimed responsibility, does not reflect reality. But fundamentally, a spy is of enormous value to Western states and foreign powers, especially if he or she holds Israeli or American nationality,” Fadlallah said.

He explained that a spy with such nationalities carries a very high price in exchange deals. “The factions are in a state of war with the Zionist entity and the American occupation, and we have several key figures detained by Israel and the US Therefore, this issue must be viewed within the framework of the war of human resources.”

Fadlallah claimed that the factions would never settle for financial benefits in such cases. “If this matter were indeed in the hands of the resistance factions, they would not bargain or negotiate for financial gains or material profits. Instead, they would focus on securing the release of important figures arrested by the US or Israel in Western or Arab countries. Any exchange would be tied to that,” he said.

He added that the factions had a long history of managing prisoner swaps. “The factions and the Axis of Resistance have extensive experience with prisoner exchange files, and undoubtedly the winning side here would be the factions. We recall Hezbollah’s experience in prisoner swaps, which achieved very positive results, including the release of highly important Palestinian and Lebanese figures.”

Still, he noted, the picture remains uncertain. “The matter remains unclear, and no particular party has been definitively identified as responsible. But overall, it is a position credited to the Iraqi government that it managed to prevent a potentially very dangerous crisis in the future.”

Additional reporting by Amr Al Housni