ERBIL, Kurdistan Region of Iraq - Recent Israeli media reports warning of an emerging “Iranian threat inside Iraq” have triggered debate among analysts and political factions, with some suggesting the claims are being used to pressure Baghdad as parliamentary elections approach. Others warn the reports highlight a wider regional shift following losses by Iranian allies in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.

Firas al-Yasir, a member of the political council for the Harakat al-Nujaba movement, said these reports may serve as a tool to pressure Iraq and its government. He confirmed that cooperation continues among all fronts of the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”

Yasir told The New Region that “there are several possibilities behind these reports, including creating a pretext to blackmail Iraq and pressure its government as parliamentary elections approach, or attempting to lay the groundwork for an Israeli attack on Iraq.” He noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously issued direct threats toward Baghdad.

He added that Iraqi “resistance” factions are “continuing to build up their strength, develop and modernize their combat structures, and prepare for any emergency or response to any attack in a way that fits the nature of the coming battle. Cooperation continues across all fronts of the resistance axis to reorganize cooperation and participation in joint operations rooms.”

At the same time, security and strategic affairs expert Saif Raad warned that Israel may strike Iraq because Iran could be positioning the country as a “reserve front” after recent battlefield setbacks.

Speaking to The New Region on Thursday, Raad said that “from a security perspective, the Israeli reports reflect a real pattern in Iranian strategy, even if they are not entirely surprising. These reports published in recent weeks emphasize Iran shifting its military focus toward Iraq and using it as a reserve front, after heavy Israeli strikes against its proxies and allies in Lebanon, Syria, and the Gaza Strip.”

Raad explained that “strategically, it became very clear after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 and the destruction of a large part of Hezbollah’s capabilities in 2025 that Iraq has become Iran’s ‘reserve tank.’ This was indicated in American and Israeli satellite reports published across several platforms, pointing to transfers of weapons from Iran across the shared border.”

He warned this activity “could lead to a wider regional war,” especially as the United States recently urged Baghdad to force armed factions to hand their weapons to the state. Washington also appointed a special envoy for Iraq. “All of this coincides with Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections,” he said.

Raad added that Israel’s recent military developments must be taken seriously. “Israel established the 96th Division, known as Gilad, in late 2024 as a new light reserve force. It has since expanded and undergone intensive training in the Jordan Valley, which is similar to the border region between Iran and Iraq, featuring mountainous deserts, narrow passes, and open territory,” he said. “This makes every scenario possible if escalation occurs.”

“These reports show Iran’s flexibility in proxy warfare, but they also give Israel reason to strengthen its eastern defenses. Israel may conduct special military operations outside its borders, as it did in August near Damascus. We cannot rule out special operations targeting objectives along the Iranian-Iraqi border, or even inside Iraq or Iran,” he added.

Raad concluded that “the more reports emphasize the role of Iraqi armed factions as part of the escalation, the more likely we are facing potential escalation in the coming period, especially if any calm with Hezbollah collapses.”

Previous reports

In recent days, several Israeli media outlets reported what they described as a “major strategic shift” in Iran’s military positioning ahead of any future conflict with Israel. According to these reports, Tehran may shift the military weight of the “Axis of Resistance” away from traditional fronts, Lebanon, Syria, and the besieged Gaza Strip, to Iraqi territory.

Israel’s public broadcaster KAN cited Iraqi sources saying that “Iran seeks to place the greater burden of any future confrontation on its allied Shiite militias in Iraq, following heavy blows dealt to its allies on other fronts.”

KAN reported that Iranian support for Iraqi militias has expanded noticeably in recent months, especially in supplying advanced weapons and training in new combat tactics. These efforts are reportedly supervised by the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to estimates cited by KAN, these militias have become a significant military force that, in some areas, surpasses the capabilities of Iraq’s official army. The reports suggest this reflects weakened influence of Iraq’s federal government, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani.

The reports also claim that the goal behind this preparation is to enable these groups to launch possible attacks against Israel should a regional war break out. However, KAN noted that Iraqi militias did not participate in the most recent confrontation between Iran and Israel due to pressure from the Iraqi government and explicit US-Israeli warnings.

Prior to these reports, Israeli media said that Tel Aviv, through its military and Mossad intelligence service, is preparing for a new front in Iraq under the pretext of growing “threats” fueled by Iran.

The Hebrew-language website Walla reported last Friday that the Israeli army and Mossad are preparing for a “growing threat” from Iraq toward Israel’s home front.