ERBIL, Kurdistan Region of Iraq - As US forces prepare to end their presence entirely in Iraq’s provinces, except in the Kurdistan Region, concerns are rising in Sunni cities, which fear a return of extremist group and a repeat of what happened in the summer of 2014, when the Islamic State (ISIS) seized nearly one-third of the country following the US withdrawal at the end of 2011.

This comes as the first phase of the agreement on the withdrawal of international coalition forces from Iraq is being implemented, with the first US unit leaving Ain al-Assad base in Anbar, with some of the personnel being moved to Erbil, part heading to Kuwait, and another part toward al-Tanf base in Syria. 

Iraq and the US in September 2024 announced they had reached an agreement to wrap up the US-led coalition’s military presence in the country by “no later than the end of September 2025” and transition to bilateral security partnerships “in a manner that supports Iraqi forces and maintains pressure on ISIS.”

The US has approximately 2,400 military personnel deployed in Iraq. US forces were deployed to Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government in 2014 to fight the Islamic State (ISIS), which had then overrun large swathes of Iraqi territory in the north and west of the country

On August 18, a US defense official told The New Region that Washington remains "committed to end the Coalition’s military mission inside of Iraq by September 2025 and will continue to support counter-ISIS operations in Syria from bases in Iraq through September 2026."

It is noted that “the decision to withdraw part of the US forces came contrary to the timetable agreed upon for the gradual withdrawal, which was supposed to take place after the legislative elections in November.” Political experts suggest this may be “a reaction from the US administration to Iraq’s recent tilt toward Iran.”

Various media reports have indicated that the US withdrawal could create a security vacuum in Sunni cities, raising risks of a resurgence of ISIS activity, similar to 2014 when Mosul and other cities were seized.

Anbar under threat

In this regard, Abdullah al-Jghaifi, advisor to the Security and Defense Committee in Anbar Provincial Council, stressed that there are serious concerns over the US withdrawal and its impact on Sunni cities.

Speaking to The New Region, he said, “The US withdrawal could open new security gaps that terrorist groups, including ISIS, which is still active in valleys and deserts, could exploit. With the lack of air cover for Iraqi forces, this could allow ISIS to expand its presence and reemerge strongly on the ground.”

He added, “There are fears the conflict between US forces and armed factions could shift inside Anbar, particularly along the border strip with Syria, after most forces move to al-Tanf base. Their withdrawal could pave the way for large-scale targeting of factions and their leaders.”

No security impact

On the other hand, Mohammed Jassim al-Kaka’i, head of the Security Committee in the Nineveh Provincial Council, believes that “the security situation in Sunni provinces is at its best, with no sign of extremist groups returning.”

Speaking to The New Region, Kaka’i explained, “The security gap that ISIS and other armed groups once exploited was through Syria, but the border is now largely secured, and there have been no breaches since the changes in Syria.”

He pointed out, “Security cooperation between Iraq and Syria, as well as a change in attitudes and the positive handling of Nineveh’s residents and other Sunni provinces by security forces, all make it difficult for extremist groups to reemerge.” He added, “The situation is completely different from 2014. There are no longer safe havens, nor the conditions that allowed ISIS to rise. Residents are now focused on reconstruction and development of their cities.”

He continued, “Security forces have made major progress in intelligence and equipment. ISIS no longer has the ability to carry out wide-scale attacks, and the border strip is strategically secured; it cannot be breached. Our cities will not be affected at all by the US withdrawal.”

After the 2011 US withdrawal, Sunni cities saw a surge in attacks that Iraqi forces struggled to contain, which forced the government to seek US support again after ISIS captured cities, including Anbar and large parts of Nineveh, which it fully controlled by June 2014.

The US Embassy in Iraq issued a warning about the expansion of ISIS activities in Iraq and Syria. In a statement on X, it expressed “deep concern about the ongoing operations and regional expansions of ISIS and al-Qaeda,” while praising UN member states that continue to pressure terrorist groups in Iraq, Syria, and Somalia, which has limited ISIS operations.

Meanwhile, Iran-backed armed factions remain highly active in Sunni cities, particularly in Nineveh and Anbar, with major headquarters and ground presence, raising fears they may exploit the US withdrawal to strengthen their influence and control, both security and administrative.

Open skies and vanishing support

In another context, military expert Ayad al-Tufan believes the US withdrawal from Iraq will have several side effects.

In a post on X, he wrote, “We will bid farewell to aerial support, both fixed-wing and helicopter, farewell to advanced electronic intelligence, farewell to logistical support for Iraqi aircraft and tanks. Our skies and air sovereignty will be open to whoever wishes to enter.”

Former Iraqi Defense Minister Juma’a Anad also confirmed that the capabilities of Iraq’s security forces remain limited, especially in the air domain.

Speaking to The New Region, Anad said, “ISIS still has strong capabilities. There are major movements in the desert, and a serious threat coming from Syria. As a result, all of Iraq, including Sunni cities, will face fears of security collapse after the US withdrawal, just as happened after 2011.” He added, “Iraq should have made maximum use of the security agreement with the United States to strengthen the army, the air force, and fully clear the desert before the withdrawal began.”

Sunnis most affected?

Meanwhile, political researcher and academic at Anbar University, Falah al-Ani, stressed that Sunni cities will be the most affected by the US withdrawal.

Speaking to The New Region, he said, “The Kurds enjoy autonomy, and part of the US forces will remain in Erbil. They also have the Peshmerga and armed forces. The Shiites hold power, are supported by Iran, and possess weapons and influence. The Sunnis, however, have no autonomy and face ongoing threats from extremist groups.”

Ani pointed out, “Sunni cities will be exposed. They lack weapons, strength, and protection, unlike before, when US forces at Ain al-Asad base provided aerial support, surveillance systems, and reconnaissance aircraft.”

He continued, “Politically, Sunnis will be the weakest link, especially if there is no war between Iran and the United States and Tehran increases its regional weight. In that case, Iran-backed factions will expand their presence in Anbar and other Sunni cities, tightening full control.”

Shiites as the biggest losers?

On the other hand, MP and Azm Alliance leader Talal al-Zobaie argued that Sunnis will not be the losers after the US withdrawal, but rather the Shiite community will suffer the most.

In remarks to The New Region, he explained, “The Sunnis learned their lesson after the mistakes of 2003, such as refusing to join the security and military institutions and boycotting elections. They will not repeat the experience of 2011, when US forces withdrew and ISIS entered our areas.”

He continued, “Politically, Shiites will be the biggest losers, because the US withdrawal will give the green light to those who want to target Iraq and strike the armed factions—particularly Israel. The US presence was the guarantee that prevented the political system from collapsing.” He emphasized, “Sunnis are now a strong, essential partner, respected by the international community. The only real concern is internal disputes among Sunni parties and leaders, which could weaken the community after elections or amid future regional developments and conflicts.”

Meanwhile, Hussein Allawi, Advisor to the Prime Minister, told Iraqi state media that “the Iraqi government is committed to its program of building the armed forces, ending the mission of the international coalition, and moving relations with coalition countries into stable bilateral defense partnerships, governed by political, economic, and cultural ties. Implementation of the agreement between Iraq and coalition states is moving forward.”

Former Nineveh Governor Atheel al-Nujaifi, however, argued that politically there is no concern over the future of Sunnis, but the real fear lies in the military and security sphere.

He told The New Region, “The only concern is the risk of a security collapse that could trigger chaos and disaster, similar to 2014, due to a failure to properly assess the capabilities of Iraqi security forces.”

He added, “Politically, the US withdrawal will actually strengthen the Sunnis’ future, because the real target will be the Shiite armed factions, which will fight each other extensively, leading to a weakening of their role in the coming phase.”