On the latest episode of The New Region's GeoSpace podcast, Mohammed A. Salih hosted Kamaran Palani, Principal investigator at the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics (LSE). The two discussed how US President Donald Trump's unprecedented public veto of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has upended Iraq's government formation process and exposed deeper shifts in the country's political landscape.

Nearly three months after Iraq's November parliamentary elections, the Shiite Coordination Framework's nomination of Maliki triggered an unusually direct intervention from Washington. Trump's warning that Washington would no longer help Baghdad if Maliki became premier marked a dramatic departure from traditional diplomatic restraint.

Palani explained that the delayed US response reflects a fundamental shift in Washington's Middle East policy. “The role of embassies and consulates is almost absent. The policies are very much dependent on Trump's special envoys to the region,” he noted. “This is problematic because the embassies and consulates have got very nuanced understanding of the dynamics on the ground.”

Reports circulating in recent days have suggested that Trump has dismissed Mark Savaya from his role as the US Envoy for Iraq, with plans to replace him with Tom Barrack.

The potential appointment of Barrack, who currently handles Syria, Turkey, and Lebanon portfolios, as Iraq's new envoy has raised particular concerns. "The assessment in Erbil, in Baghdad, is quite different" from other regional capitals, Palani said. "People in Erbil and in Baghdad see the US policies in Syria, led by or mediated by Barrack, as one of disasters."

Palani also identified an unprecedented convergence between Iraq's Shiite and Kurdish communities driven by regional fears. “I've never seen such a degree of uncertainty and fear and concern. And also, I've never seen such a degree of convergence of feeling and interests among the Kurds and the Shiite Arabs when it comes to the region,” he said.

This marks the first time since 2003 that the two communities “see more in common than disagreements between them,” creating conditions for potential political alliance.

Palani emphasized that a Shiite-Kurdish alliance “shouldn’t be seen as an alliance against the Sunni Arabs in the country… Shouldn't be seen as Kurdistan moving towards Iran… Shouldn't be seen as Kurdistan taking steps to distance itself from Washington.”

On decentralization, Palani pushed back against critics who cite Iraq as a cautionary tale. “For the past 22 years… except for two days in late October 2017, there haven't been violent clashes between Kurdistan government and the Iraqi government,” he stated, contrasting this with Syria's centralized model.

“I would say Kurdistan Region is not just a model for the rest of the country. I would say it's a model for some parts of the region as well,” said the researcher, citing the Region’s stability and lack of intra-violence over the past three decades.

As Iraq searches for an acceptable prime minister, Palani suggested Washington wants someone that doesn't challenge the key objectives of the US in Iraq: maintaining military presence in the Kurdistan Region, protecting security and interests of US companies in the country, and eliminating Iranian influence.