On the latest episode of The New Region's GeoSpace podcast, Mohammed A. Salih hosted David Schenker, Taube Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he directs the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. Schenker, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs from 2019 to 2021, discussed the urgent challenge posed by Iran-aligned Shiite militias in Iraq following their extensive participation in the 39-day US-Israel war with Iran.

Around 1,000 attacks were launched from, against, or within Iraqi territory during the conflict, with over 700 targeting the Kurdistan Region. The attacks hit military and diplomatic facilities, energy infrastructure, Iraqi and Kurdish security forces, Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups, and even residences of top Kurdish officials. US-Israeli counterstrikes killed over 70 militia members, and Washington recently placed several $10 million bounties on a number of the militia leader

“They have significant capabilities. They are undeniably and unabashedly aligned with, loyal to, answerable to the theocratic regime in Tehran,” he stated. However, “the degree to which they went after Kurdish civilian targets, the degree to which they went after the Iraqi state institution, not only energy, but the INSS [Iraqi National Security Service] headquarters. This, I think, was a little surprising.”

On the Kurdistan Region bearing disproportionate attacks, Schenker explained the militias' multiple motivations. “I think the Hashd [Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)] really resents the Kurds... It's not only isolated because of the strategic, but it's also the period of government formation, right? So there's signals on multiple levels here that the Kurds are going to be targeted, they're vulnerable, and they better vote the right way when it comes to who's going to be the next prime minister.”

Regarding distinctions between the broader PMF and Iran-backed factions within it, Schenker emphasized the analytical importance while acknowledging Washington's limited awareness. “When you say Hashd, this is the code word, right? You're referring to the PMF, but most specifically to these six or seven organizations that are US-designated terrorist organizations that are on the Iranian payroll.” He noted these groups dominate the organization despite the PMF's 238,000 total members, many of whom are “Iraqi patriots who step forward to help fight ISIS.”

On disarming and dismantling these militias, Schenker said: “I don't think the US government has a plan. In fact, I'm pretty sure the US government doesn't have a plan.” He outlined key elements any approach must include: paying out pensions and retiring fighters, removing groups from government payroll, ending US counterterrorism funding that indirectly supports designated terrorist organizations, and collecting heavy weapons.

Schenker distinguished Iraq from Lebanon's Hezbollah challenge. “This should not be as complicated as the disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is not on the government payroll,” he explained. “Iraq has a bigger army... The military can act. The military has capabilities.” However, he acknowledged the political difficulty: “You're going to need some sort of courageous leadership here in Iraq that values national sovereignty, but also is willing to take risks.”

On Baghdad's lack of accountability during the war, Schenker assessed it as primarily a will problem rather than capacity. “I don't think that type of dynamic exists in Iraq” as in Lebanon, he said, noting the state has demonstrated capabilities but faces a political decision. “This is basically rooting out this really deep and pernicious Iranian influence within the country that is taking Iraq in a very bad direction.”

“When the Hashd does these kinds of things in the defense of the clerical regime in Tehran, it really undermines economic progress,” Schenker observed, noting that $100 billion in US contracts were pending before the conflict, with American companies finally returning after prolonged calm.

Regarding air defense for the Kurdistan rRegion, Schenker acknowledged complications. “Air defense assets are in short supply.”

“It is absurd, obscene... surreal, to describe this dynamic right now that the Kurds might have to start thinking about defending themselves against the central government in Baghdad.”

On regional relations, Schenker stated: “The government of Iraq sided with Iran in this war. I don't think there's any other way to describe it.” Gulf countries that made diplomatic efforts to embrace Iraq “will be reticent to engage with Baghdad, if Baghdad continues to underwrite these groups that attacked these states.”

For recalibrating US-Iraq relations, Schenker emphasized choking off financial support before considering weapons decommissioning, and stressed the importance of Baghdad naming perpetrators by name—something it has consistently refused to do.

On the prime minister selection, Schenker noted the militias' dominant role while acknowledging President Donald Trump's effective intervention against Nouri al-Maliki's candidacy. “You're gonna need somebody with some real intestinal fortitude, to be able to move this ball forward. Otherwise, Iraq is going to emerge in a very bad position.”

After months of internal strife, Iraq’s ruling Shiite Coordination Framework on Monday nominated for the prime minister post Ali al-Zaidi, an Iraqi businessman seen as a compromise candidate who is relatively unknown in the Iraqi political sphere.

“If there are politicians who are enabling Iranian domination... measures can be taken,” Schencker said, noting sanctions aim “to change behavior, to get people to rethink what they're doing.”