After months of wranglings, Iraq and the Kurdistan Region eventually announced on Sunday that they reached an agreement to resume the Region’s oil exports to the international market through Turkey’s Ceyhan port.

 

As per the agreement, Iraq will take 185,000 barrels of oil from the Kurdistan Region in the first stage of resuming exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, and will gradually increase to reach 400,000 barrels exported daily.

 

Turkey’s energy ministry, however, on Monday told The New Region that there is currently no decision on the resumption of the Kurdistan Region’s oil export, shortly after Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said that the exports would resume in two days.

 

“No new decisions have been made and no time has been set,” the Turkish energy ministry said.

 

A recent Reuters report, citing multiple sources “with direct knowledge of the matter,” claimed that US President Donald Trump’s administration has pressured Iraq to allow for the resumption of Kurdish oil exports, in a measure to offset the impact of cutting off Iranian exports which Trump has pledged to cut to zero under his “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.

 

Curb Iran’s influence in Iraq

 

According to the US Department of State’s readout of the phone call, Rubio and Sudani discussed “reducing” Iran’s influence in Iraq, but the Iraqi prime minister’s statement made no mention of that. 

 

"The Secretary and Prime Minister also discussed reducing Iran’s malign influence and continuing efforts to prevent ISIS from resurging and destabilizing the broader region,” the readout said.

 

Iraq has been caught up in the midst of the tensions between regional powerhouse Iran and the United States as a global superpower for years now, facing increasing pressure from the US over its ties with the Islamic Republic.

 

Shakhawan Abdullah, second deputy of the Iraqi parliament, who was recently in the US, warned that the new US administration is currently "in the process of preparing sanctions against Iraq" over allegations that it serves as a channel for smuggling dollars and oil to Iran, as well as Baghdad’s failure to control Iran-backed armed factions operating inside Iraq.

 

“The new American administration is determined to take decisions against the current Iraqi government,” Abdullah said on the sidelines of a conference in Erbil on Saturday.

 

A recent White House memo emphasized stricter measures against Iran, which has fueled calls within the US political establishment to sever financial support for Iraqi entities suspected of transferring funds to Iran and impose sanctions on key institutions. Iraqi state-owned Rafidain Bank has been singled out due to allegations that it enables money transfers to Iran and Iran-backed armed groups. 

 

There have been reports of international calls, mainly from the US, on Baghdad to disarm and dissolve armed groups not operating under the umbrella of Iraqi state forces, including the Iraqi government-linked and Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

 

“I heard from the US Deputy Secretary of State and the official in charge of the Iraq file in the new administration that Washington is in the process of preparing sanctions against Iraq,” Abdullah said, noting that "the Iraqi government should expect a set of decisions from Washington; as a result of its failure to respond to US warnings.”

 

Earlier, international affairs researcher Nizar Haidar said Baghdad should “seriously” take into account threats from US Congressmen that they would push for sanctions on Iraq, should Baghdad fail to adhere to the US warnings. 

 

“Signatures that were recently collected in Congress regarding the Iraqi factions came from Republican representatives who are considered Republican hawks in Congress and are close to President Trump, and all these statements and tweets must be taken seriously,” Haidar warned. 

 

Energy independence

 

During the Tuesday phone call, the US secretary of state and Sudani agreed on the need for Iraq to become "energy independent.”

Iraq has long relied on imports of electricity and gas from Iran, but has faced difficulties paying for these imports due to US sanctions.

 

In early February, US President Donald Trump revoked Iraq’s exemption to import electricity and gas from Iran, reinforcing his campaign of maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic as part of his administration’s mounting pressures to target Iran’s energy sector.

 

Despite the pressures, Iraq says Iran has promised to supply the country with larger quantities of gas to power its national grid.

 

If the Trump administration goes through with revoking the waiver, Baghdad needs to either approach Washington diplomatically in hopes of renewing the permit, expedite the completion of gas import contracts from Qatar, or expedite the implementation of the gas supply agreement with Turkmenistan, according to the lawmaker.

 

Iranian gas supplies account for between 30 to 40 percent of Iraq’s energy needs. These imports are especially crucial during the summer months when temperatures can reach 50°C and energy demand peaks. 

 

Previous US administrations had repeatedly renewed a waiver permitting Iraq to purchase Iranian electricity.