On the latest episode of The New Region’s GeoSpace podcast, host Mohammed A. Salih sat down with Elizabeth Threlkeld, senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, to discuss the Pakistani role in Middle Eastern affairs, its mediation between Washington and Tehran, and Islamabad’s deepening ties with Saudi Arabia. 

Threlkeld described Pakistan's involvement as "a mix of opportunity and risk," noting that Islamabad is one of the countries most exposed to the second-order impacts of the conflict. Supply chain disruptions, blocked energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, and the presence of millions of Pakistani guest workers in the Gulf have all created urgent pressure to help bring the war to a close.

Pakistan's credibility with Washington, she argued, rests heavily on the personal relationship between Field Marshal Asim Munir and President Trump, which solidified following the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict. That relationship is “so critical in all of this," she said. "It is leader level, it is personal."

On Pakistan's role in the negotiations, Threlkeld noted a gradual evolution. Initially, the sense was that Pakistan “really was serving as more of a go-between," she said, "but as this has gone on, we've started to hear reports of Pakistan being a bit more forward-leaning,” moving from facilitator toward mediator, with all the added risk that entails.

Threlkeld also addressed the Pakistan-Saudi mutual defense agreement signed in September 2025, describing it as a “formalization” of military cooperation that had been “ongoing for many decades." Reuters has since reported that Pakistan has stationed fighter jets and other military assets in Saudi Arabia, which she read as a show of deterrence. She cautioned, however, that Pakistan's willingness to enter a direct conflict on Saudi Arabia's behalf would depend heavily on whether Riyadh itself decides to go on the offensive.

On the prospect of a Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi triangle reshaping regional politics, Threlkeld was measured. "It's difficult for me to imagine Pakistan itself really shaping the politics of the Middle East," she said, seeing its role more as an "aligned security partner" than a political architect.

She also pointed to the India factor, noting that as Pakistan deepens its ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, India has correspondingly accelerated its relationships with the UAE and Israel. "We get the split and the conflict in South Asia superimposed on the Middle East," she said, and it gets “somewhat complex in a hurry."

On China, Threlkeld said Pakistan has sought to keep Beijing onside while rebuilding ties with Washington, a "tenuous balance" that has so far held. "Pakistan has managed to eke out some space," she said, though how long that lasts remains an open question.