On the latest episode of The New Region’s GeoSpace podcast, host Mohammed A. Salih spoke with Akeel Abbas, a nonresident senior fellow at the Iraq Initiative within the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, regarding the efforts of new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's government to bring militias under state control, the appointment of Tom Barrack as US Envoy to Iraq, and external actors that will influence Baghdad's drive for reform.

Abbas, who specializes in Iraqi politics and has written several books on the matter, said that the most striking element of Zaidi's premiership is his outsider status in the political sphere, stressing that "he has no independent political base" and is a compromise candidate who must leverage existing power structures to achieve his program for government.

"The Coordination Framework is in need of somebody that is acceptable to the United States, that is acceptable to the other partners in Iraq, someone through whom they could overcome their differences - and they have lots of differences," he said.

Regarding the premier's efforts to bring armed groups under state control, Abbas said that "any roadmap produced by this government will have to be vetted, verified, and accepted by the United States," warning that "Iraq has a history of not doing this well" while Salih pointed out the rejection of several pro-Iran groups of the disarmament plans.

"The devil is in the details. How is this going to be done? Is it enduring? Is it institutional? Is it irreversible?" said the guest, drawing comparisons with the integration of armed factions following the US-led invasion of 2003 that deposed Saddam Hussein.

"This whole discussion about dismantling the militias wasn't born out of Iraq's national dialogue... This is born out of US anger."

The pair also discussed the formal appointment of Tom Barrack, who emerged as a key figure in regional politics last year, as special envoy for Iraq and the implications for domestic politics.

"The fact that the United States appoints a special presidential envoy... is a positive sign," Abbas said. "Tom Barrack is the deal maker. His style might work with the current leadership in Iraq."

 "I's important here to notice that the focus is not really reforming Iraq, or putting it on the right track. You know, enforcing or pressuring the government to rein in corruption, improve its human rights record, its, improving services," he continued, noting that Washington's priority is to remove Iraq from the Iranian sphere of influence and that this is Barrack's prime mandate.

Given Barrack's dual roles as envoy to both Iraq and Syria, as well as his status as ambassador to Turkey, Salih asked if the US views these files as connected and if he will "bring Turkish considerations for how Iraq's future has to be shaped into discussions with Iraqi leadership."

"The United States would much prefer to have Turkey replace Iran in Iraq," Abbas responded. "The United States would be more interested in deepening Iraqi-Turkish relations."

Salih also speculated that Iran could serve as a spoiler to the militia disarmament process, with Abbas asserting that Tehran "will fight it in the ways it can."

"Are we going to see a dissolution of the Popular Mobilization Forces?" asked Salih, to which his guest replied that "the Hashd al-Shaabi (PMF) cannot continue in this current way... You either seriously institutionalize it ... or simply dismantle it."

The discussion concluded by the pair expressing skepticism of the prospects for genuine reform in Iraq, noting that the current push is drive primarily by US pressure and would likely falter should Washington's attention shift elsewhere.