ERBIL, Kurdistan Region of Iraq – As negotiations continue in Baghdad over the government’s campaign to disarm non-state armed factions, proposals have been made to postpone the September 30 deadline, amid efforts to ensure the process is conducted without emasculating the factions, sources told The New Region.

The Iraqi government under Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has led a renewed drive to restrict weapons to the state, and has set an end-of-September deadline for armed groups to hand over all weapons. The deadline coincides with the withdrawal of the US-led coalition against the Islamic State (ISIS) from Iraq.

Although many groups have expressed willingness to comply, Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhadad, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, three influential Iran-backed Iraqi armed factions who are designated by the US, have rejected the calls for disarmament.

Their protest of the government’s efforts grew even louder following the large-scale US-Saudi attack on bases of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in late July, which killed 20 fighters and wounded 32 others.

Sources speaking to The New Region said that discussions are underway in Baghdad to find a way forward on the issue of armed factions handing over their weapons, through a formula that would neither embarrass the government nor the factions.

According to the sources, the efforts are focused on a formula that allows the government to claim success in resolving the issue while, at the same time, preventing the factions from appearing as though they surrendered their weapons under pressure.

“The September 30 deadline will not remain fixed, and proposals for postponement are increasingly becoming a reality,” a source close to the Iraqi government told The New Region.

Zaidi’s government has repeatedly stressed its commitment to September 30 as the date for the withdrawal of the coalition forces and the completion of the disarmament process, and there have been no official announcements of any intention to postpone the deadline.

The PMC as a possible intermediary

One of the sources, a director of the office of one of the leaders of the Coordination Framework and also a member of the committee tasked by the ruling Shiite bloc with consulting armed factions about handing over their weapons, told The New Region that there is an understanding between the Coordination Framework forces and Zaidi under which the factions’ weapons would be handed over to the Popular Mobilization Commission (PMC), which would become the official body responsible for registering and storing them before the deadline expires.

Established in December 2016, the PMC is the official government agency in charge of bringing all PMF factions under state control.

The source also pointed to another proposed mechanism: Making September 30 the date for organizing and regulating the weapons rather than surrendering them, while freezing the factions’ activities for two years.

“So far, the committee formed by the Coordination Framework is working on mechanisms to resolve this issue,” they added.

The source claimed that all Coordination Framework forces had agreed and informed Zaidi of their opposition to a military confrontation with the factions in any form, and that the decision to restrict weapons “must be purely Iraqi, away from external pressure.”

Speaking at the 8th Baghdad Dialogue Conference last week, Zaidi said that all political forces in the country are in “complete agreement” on the government’s efforts to establish state monopoly on weapons, while denying any potential escalations between government forces and the factions.

“There are no intentions or possibilities of any military confrontation, and we will not allow Iraq's enemies to exploit any opportunity,” Zaidi said.

The specter of armed confrontation

The Iraqi premier has been the subject of threatening messages from Iran-backed groups over his efforts to disarm the groups. Most recently, Kataib Hezbollah warned that its “patience is running out regarding the provocative and irresponsible actions of the young Zaidi,” saying it could begin to act according to the principle of “an eye for an eye.”

Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition and Iraq’s former prime minister, on Wednesday warned against a confrontation between the state and armed factions and against what he described as “attempts to ignite fires,” stressing the need to resolve the issue without escalation, as such a conflict “would be extremely dangerous, could threaten Iraq’s stability, and open the door to divergent political positions.”

In a Sunday meeting with Joshua Harris, the outgoing charge d'affaires of the US Embassy in Iraq, Ammar al-Hakim, head of the National Wisdom Movement (Hikma), called for “adopting the language of understanding and dialogue as a means to confine weapons to the state,” highlighting the factions’ role in confronting the threat of ISIS, while noting that the weapons would be handed over to the PMC, as an official government institution, according to a statement from his office.

On August 8, Hakim had said that the weapons issue “will be addressed within the framework of the PMF,” warning against what he described as “attempts to demonize everything in Iraq,” and calling for the factions to be viewed as groups that “offered martyrs in defense of Iraq.”

The US has long pushed for the armed factions, especially those with strong ties to Iran, to be disarmed, and has heavily supported Zaidi’s efforts to confine weapons to the state.