In the latest episode of The New Region's GeoSpace podcast, host Mohammed A. Salih sits down with Galip Dalay, senior research fellow at Chatham House and co-director of the Program on Global Orders at the University of Oxford, to discuss Turkey's expanding regional role, the implications of the PKK peace process, the Mecca Defense Agreement, and what Ankara wants from the ongoing US-Iran war.

Dalay opened by identifying the core principle running through Turkey's regional policy: the idea of regional ownership.

"In all of them, the idea of the regional logic rather than the external logic is quite central," he said, contrasting the Iraq Development Road project with the US-driven India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor initiative. "The question of which country a trade corridor excludes usually tells us more about the idea of the order that underpins it."

He further pointed out that Turkey has "probably the most developed industrial base" in its neighborhood, with Ankara not relying on hydrocarbon resources but on its export market and its domestic labor base. 

"Therefore, it is a country that can capitalize more on regional stability rather than regional chaos," Dalay noted.

On the post-October 7 environment, Dalay argued that the regional upheaval has simultaneously raised risks and expanded opportunities for Ankara.

"Israel has increasingly entered into the picture as a geopolitical rival whose strategies are very much inimical to Turkish interests," he said, pointing to Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean as the key flashpoints. In Syria, he noted, Turkey and Israel hold "diametrically opposed" visions — Turkey wants a stable, centralized Syria with military capacity, while Israel wants one that is "weak, fragmented, and without a capable air defense system."

He also argued that Israel's regional partnerships have lost their Arab dimension since October 7, partly because of Turkey's successful reset with Gulf states, Egypt, and the UAE.

"Israel's regional partnership is now devoid of Arab ownership," he said.

On Iran, Dalay was clear that Turkey does not benefit from Iranian state collapse.

"The state collapse in Iran means fragmentation, chaos, proxy wars, militarization, radicalization," he said. "Turkey and Iran are neighbors. The state collapse will be a nightmare scenario for almost all the neighboring countries."

He acknowledged, however, that Iran's weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz has inadvertently boosted Turkey's centrality in regional trade and connectivity.

"You cannot change your geography, but you can change the meaning of your geography through connectivity and trade corridor initiatives," he said. "Turkey's centrality for different regional connectivity projects will increase."

On the PKK peace process, Dalay described it as one of the few genuinely positive developments in an otherwise turbulent region.

"This is probably one of the only bright spots in the region at a time defined by wars, conflicts, and devastation," he said, adding that its implications extend far beyond Turkey's borders, shaping Syria's transition, removing a major irritant in Turkish-Iraqi relations, and helping explain why Iranian Kurdish groups declined to join the war against Tehran.

He also connected Turkey's recent decision to withdraw from the Bashiqa military base in northern Iraq directly to the PKK peace process, showcasing the regional consequences of domestic peace overtures.

"If the PKK is going to dissolve itself, if the PKK's affiliated groups are going to integrate into national security structures in neighboring countries, that is reducing the reasons for these military bases in the first place," he said.

On the Mecca Defense Agreement, the trilateral mutual defense pact between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, Dalay pushed back against comparisons to NATO, arguing the pact's lack of a shared threat perception is both its weakness and its strength.

"Without a shared threat, it's very difficult to create a pact," he said. "But without a shared threat, the possibility of creating a wider platform is much more likely." He described the agreement as signaling a "post-Abrahamic" regional order — one no longer premised on Arab-Israeli normalization under a US security umbrella.

"The Mecca pact is not anti-US," he said. "To the contrary, the countries that are part of this agreement are US partners. This is more in line with the US idea of regional burden sharing."

On Turkey's view of the US role in the region, Dalay was nuanced. Turkey is not an anti-systemic actor, he stressed, and with the Syria crisis resolved and the PKK dissolving, Ankara has fewer reasons than before to clash with Washington.

"There is more overlap on many fronts now than there was before," he said. The main challenge, he added, is the incoherence of the US system itself. "Different actors in the US system seem to represent different foreign policies — Trump, Vance, Rubio, Barrack. That creates quite a difficult context to adjust to."