ERBIL, Kurdistan Region of Iraq - For over a year, the Middle East has remained on edge following the October 7 attack on Israel and Israel's subsequent aggressive war on Gaza. The conflict later escalated with military operations in northern Lebanon. So far, the ongoing war has claimed tens of thousands of civilian lives in Gaza and Lebanon, causing widespread destruction in the affected areas. Iraq has also felt the escalation's impact.

From the outset, Iraqi armed factions praised the attack, declaring full support for the Gaza-based resistance. They targeted Israeli sites with rockets and drones in solidarity with Palestinians and as retaliation for US and Western support of Israel. 

These factions intensified their actions significantly after the Israeli army assassinated Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah. As a result, Iraq has found itself in the red zone for the past year, with the war's repercussions affecting the country both directly and indirectly.

Threats to the political system

Ihsan al-Shammari, a professor of public policy at the University of Baghdad, confirmed that the events of October 7 have significantly impacted Iraq both internally and externally.

In a discussion with The New Region, Shammari said, “the events of October 7 have had major impacts on Iraq on three levels: political, economic, and media-related.” 

Politically, the events divided Iraq between those who support Hamas and those who oppose it, which in turn has affected the government by dragging it into political debates on these stances. Diplomatically, the government's alignment with the Axis of Resistance has caused Iraq to appear non-neutral in the eyes of some countries.

On the economic front, Shammari noted, “Iraq has been severely impacted, particularly by fluctuations in oil prices and fears that Iraq could become a battleground, which affects investors and capital.”

“We are now at a point where Israel might decide to target Iraq, especially as Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani's government has been unable to curb the attacks by these armed groups. The government failed in negotiations with them and should have used more effective tools to limit Iraq’s involvement,” he added.

Shammari stressed that Iraq has now become part of the war post-Oct. 7, particularly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labeled Iraq, not just the factions, as an enemy state—a declaration that could have serious consequences for the country.

He also suggested that the war’s consequences have delayed the selection of a new speaker of parliament, which had been a priority. 

“The reform agenda the government promised has also been stalled, as these issues are no longer a priority,” he added. “This crisis has exposed the government's inability to maintain balance, and it has now become part of a specific axis, which will cost both the government and the prime minister significantly.”

Factions at the center of equation

Muhannad Salloum, assistant professor of security studies at the Doha Institute, said the war has had significant but indirect effects on Iraq thus far. 

“The events of October 7 brought joy to the factions because it gave them a justification to remain active. These factions typically thrive, multiply, and take root in unstable environments,” Salloum explained.

He added that in recent months, the factions have considered targeting Israel with Iranian weapons, believing such actions would enhance their legitimacy by positioning themselves as resisting Israel, while also recalling their role in resisting American forces.

However, Salloum warned that the situation has become very dangerous. 

“The factions' involvement in a confrontation with Israel could cost them dearly. As a result, we see a decrease in their hostile rhetoric toward Israel, with them hiding behind the Iraqi government, claiming that the government is the front. The only exception is the Harakat al-Nujaba faction, led by Akram al-Kaabi,” he said.

Unlike Shammari, Salloum does not believe the events of October 7 brought major changes within Iraq, except for the Iraqi armed factions using the event to promote themselves. 

However, he cautioned that current events could have future repercussions, as the U.S. is monitoring everything, including the actions of these militias. “These militias are heavily infiltrated, either by the US or Israel. After what happened to Hezbollah, the factions have become acutely aware of their situation and their ability to maneuver and confront the US and Israel. They are weak and cannot do much, but they remain part of the axis, with Iran pressuring them to target the U.S. and Israel,” Salloum added.

He concluded that the events of October 7 will have more negative repercussions for Iraq in the future than positive ones.

Dismantling the Axis

Political researcher Aqil Abbas argued that the events of October 7 placed the Iraqi government in direct confrontation with the armed factions for the first time in an unprecedented manner, and also brought the factions into conflict with the US in a new way. He emphasized, “in both cases, the power of the factions has diminished.”

Abbas explained that the government managed to somewhat limit the factions' involvement in the Gaza conflict. Additionally, when the factions targeted US forces, the US responded by bombing their positions, killing two brigade commanders. This escalation intensified the confrontation. 

“The factions failed to demonstrate their resolve or stand by Hezbollah. In other words, the direct confrontation exposed the factions' inability to fulfill their expected role as part of the Axis of Resistance, leaving their impact limited and ineffective,” he added.

Abbas highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the conflict's resolution and its impact on Iraq, as the outcome remains unclear. 

“If this confrontation ends with the dismantling of Hezbollah, its withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and the handover of the borders to official Lebanese forces, along with the dismantling of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority taking over Gaza, this would mean the dismantling of the Axis of Resistance in the Arab world, which currently exists in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon,” Abbas said.

He added that Syria has been trying to distance itself from the conflict to the point where Israeli attacks on the country go unanswered. 

“The most important force in the Axis of Resistance in this conflict is Hezbollah. What is happening now is an attempt to weaken and dismantle it militarily, potentially turning it into a purely political institution, as the US and Israel would like to do with Hamas,” Abbas said.

Abbas concluded that if the axis is dismantled, it will significantly impact Iraqi factions and their future. “They are already negatively affected, but this impact could grow, leaving Iraqi factions with no justification to continue,” he said.